by Erin Chua
LOOK at this chart. It seems that there is a more accurate predictor of junior college enrolment than birth rates, which was the reason cited for the need to merge (or is it close?) some less-popular JCs.
The G recently announced the merging of eight JCs to form four JCs – in response to the fall in demand of around 3,200 JC places between 2010 and 2019, with the sharpest year-on-year drop expected in 2018 and 2019. As reported by The Straits Times, JC intake is now expected to drop by a fifth, going from 16,000 in 2010 to 12,800 in 2019.
Singapore’s birth rates, as the G says, are indeed declining. According to the Department of Statistics Singapore, resident birth rates fell from 18.2 in 1990 to 9.4 in 2016. Yes, there is also a fall in pre-university enrolment – from 30,726 in 2006 to 29,559 in 2015.
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Singapore-born residents alone do not account for all the students who enrol in our pre-university institutions. When we solely look at resident birth rates, we are missing out on the numbers of residents (citizens and PRs) born abroad but who have moved to Singapore, naturalised Singaporeans matriculating in our local education institutions and even international students. A closer predictor of JC enrolment trends is the change in our resident population of 15-19 years olds which include all students of JC-going age.
From 2006 to 2015, the fluctuations in our pre-university enrolment numbers are more congruent with the changes in our resident population of 15-19 year olds. The resident population and pre-university enrolment numbers thus appear to be co-related. On the other hand, the Resident Live Births (15 years ago) do not seem to share as consistent a relationship with pre-university enrolment numbers.
Resident Population Data taken from Population Trends 2016 Report by Department of Statistics Singapore, Resident Live Births taken from Department of Statistics Singapore and Pre-university Enrolment taken from Education Statistics Digest 2016 by Ministry of Education (Singapore)
So, where are all of these students going?
The fall in enrolment rates faced by some of the JCs could also be attributed to the increased availability of pre-university options. In the mid 2000s, against the backdrop of the increasing resident population of 15-19 year olds, there was a surge in pre-university programmes and institutions introduced into the local education market – possibly to meet the rise in demand for pre-university education then. Some of these developments in the local education landscape include the opening of new JCs such as Meridian JC and Innova JC, the launching of the Integrated Programme (IP) which is an integrated secondary and JC education where secondary school pupils can proceed to JC level without taking the GCE ‘O’ Level Examinations, and the introduction of the International Baccalaureate (IB) Diploma Programme as an alternative to the GCE ‘A’ Levels.
Resident Population taken from Population Trends 2016 Report by Department of Statistics Singapore and Pre-university Enrolment taken from Education Statistics Digest 2016 by Ministry of Education (Singapore)
Note: Pre-university Enrolment numbers from 1991 to 1999 and 2001 to 2005 are not available
The decrease in demand due to the recent fall in resident population, compounded by the high supply of pre-university options arising from the mid 2000s could possibly explain the falling enrolment rates in JC.
As to why certain schools were closed and not others – it was cited as a question of demand and popularity, but we’ll leave it to someone else to say whether it’s popularity that makes a school hard to get in to (high demand, low cut-off points), or whether low cut-off points are what makes a school a popular choice.
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